Bellevue, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS66 KSEW 160355
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
855 PM PDT Fri May 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A cold upper level trough will continue moving east
into Western Washington and remain over the area through
Saturday night. An upper level ridge builds offshore on Sunday,
with Western Washington remaining on the backside of the ridge
through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...Showers continue
into tonight with a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly
along the coast. A Winter Weather Advisory continues for the
mountains of western Washington above 4000 feet. This was put
out mainly as a heads up for those with outdoor recreation plans
through Saturday night. Snow showers and thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out. Road travel conditions could see minor temporary
impacts, but generally ground temperatures will be warm enough
to limit road accumulation.

Widespread chances for thunder exist Saturday afternoon, though
the focus of the convective potential will shift into the
central Puget Sound south through SW Washington (peaking in the
25-35% range). Shower coverage then quickly decreases into
Sunday with an upper ridge building offshore. The ridge axis
will remain far enough away, and in combination with lower-level
moisture, will expect to see abundant cloud cover that may be a
bit persistent through the morning and perhaps midday hours.
Afternoon sunshine should result, bringing highs back to the
lower to mid 60s Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Ensemble guidance remains
in good agreement with the upper level ridge remaining in place
at least through Tuesday. Differences in the model solutions
beginning Wednesday with some solutions moving the ridge inland
over Western Washington while other solutions keep the ridge
axis offshore. Either scenario keeps the weather dry over the
area. The ridge axis moving overhead would result in a little
warmer days. For now with the uncertainty will keep highs just a
couple of degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday, in the
mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the 60s. Lows
in the 40s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...W/SW flow aloft through tonight, veering to the NW
Saturday morning and then more northerly late Saturday night. At
low levels, S winds for all but the coast, where winds are W.
Speeds ranging 8-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Widespread rain
showers leading to a mixed bag of VFR/MVFR ceilings and
isolated IFR. Similar conditions are in store for tonight into
Saturday morning as rain showers persist. Gusts up to 20 kt are
possible for Puget Sound terminals until 10- 12z Sunday. Low-end
VFR and MVFR is in store for Sunday as well as showers
maintain.

KSEA...Low-end VFR and MVFR ceilings have been observed so far this
evening with widespread rain showers. Similar conditions are
expected late tonight into Saturday. Southwesterly winds 8-12 kts
with gusts near 20 kt will maintain before gradually easing late
tonight. For Saturday, HiRes ensembles consistently showing the
development of a PSCZ Saturday afternoon with a 50-60% chance of
northerly winds at the terminal by 21-22z, with lower confidence
towards 00-01z with a signal towards a more variable wind direction
as the convergence zone become more overhead. In addition, there is
15 to 20% chance of lightning with the convergence zone through the
same period.

41

&&

.MARINE...A system passing through the area tonight into Saturday
will enhance winds and seas over most area waters with small craft
advisory conditions developing over the coastal waters after
midnight tonight then the Strait of Juan de Fuca Saturday morning. A
SCA is currently in effect for Puget Sound and Hood Canal but should
be allowed to expire later tonight. In addition there will be a
slight chance of thunderstorms for most area waters overnight into
Saturday morning. On Saturday seas over the coastal waters will be
near or above 10 ft, becoming steep Saturday evening. Persistent
onshore flow will result in daily pushes of through the Strait of
Juan De Fuca into next week.

41

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during
this time as needed.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Sunday for Cascades of
     Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and
     Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-
     Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Olympics.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Saturday for Grays
     Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to midnight PDT
     Saturday night for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
     Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight PDT
     Saturday night for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
     Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Puget
     Sound and Hood Canal.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
     To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$